Friday, September 22, 2006

An good article outlining the current state of the Tacoma Real Estate Market... article 9/22/06

Check out their 10 year prediction for Seattle, though! I think Seattle / Tacoma is a great place to live and not in the same shape as other metro areas but 60% gains over the next 10 years is a little optimistic, I believe.

1 comment:

Crashcadia said...

60% Gains over the next ten years.
Now that’s funny.

Lets add it up:

Recession/depression is on the horizon. Just look at the yield curve and the recent run to bonds. Also, there is no economic engine to pull us out of said condition quickly. We no longer have a manufacturing base and we will not have the ability to spend our way out of it.

We have a lack of personal savings. Our personal savings rate is negative, and has been for some time. This has not occurred sense the early 1930’s. On top of that we have record National debt.

Lending standards are tightening up. I have been following the Senate meetings taking place this week on the subject of toxic mortgages. This along with affordability will kill off the first time homebuyer.

The rate of foreclosure has been on the rise and with over a trillion dollars in ARMS resetting, it will continue to rise.

We have a record number of new homes built throughout the area. This along with the foreclosed inventory will add to the down turn and it will feed on itself.

The down turn in the real estate market will create massive job losses in the real estate, mortgage, and home building industries. Some estimates show that 20% to 40% of job growth in the last few years occurred in the real estate related sector. This coupled with the recession/depression will lead to job losses in other sectors as well. Just look at how the 45% downturn in home equity extraction has impacted Ford and GM. Don’t think Boeing and Microsoft will be impacted. Just wait.

Don’t give me the song and dance about how the baby boomers will save the day. We are aging and will be vacating our homes. We will become a drag not only on government services, but on our children as well.

It is amazing that our economic experts can swallow all of this and then poop out a happy housing report.

Look back on this in ten years and all you will see is the brown streaks on the carpet.