Home Sales Drop and Current Real Estate Market Trends

In Pierce County and Tacoma, sales are showing a modest upward trend so far this year when compared to the winter months (which is cyclical and quite a normal trend). Pierce County reported a 30 percent drop compared to the year before. Not only are sales continuing to drop, Pierce county registered a 5.5 percent Home Price dip as compared to March a year ago.

Real Estate Market Trends made both Seattle Newspapers today:

See the Seattle Times article here: Home prices declining, inventory building around Puget Sound

Seattle PI: Seattle single-family homes prices stay steady in March

Check out the vastly differing titles and article content.

Real Estate experts still are claiming the end is near: The local market "has reached bottom -- or pretty darn close" and although inventory continues to grow, so does optimism among buyers, Northwest MLS director Dick Beeson said in a statement.

I think that this is hopeful at best. Add in the difficulty of getting a mortgage plus the recent economic development, you get a bleak outlook for a quick turnaround.

"It's no longer a question of recession or not. Now it's how deep and how long. Workers' pink slips stacked ever higher in March as jittery employers slashed 80,000 jobs, the most in five years, and the national unemployment rate climbed to 5.1 percent. Job losses are nearing the staggering level of a quarter-million this year in just three months. "

Check out the rest of the news in this recent AP Economics article: Huge job losses set off recession alarms.

Home Prices Plunge a Record Breaking 8.2%

The National Association of Realtors recently reported the median price of homes sold during the month fell 8.2% to $195,900 from $213,500 a year earlier - the largest year-over-year price drop on record. Before the start of the current housing slump, it had been 11 years since prices declined, when compared with the same period a year earlier. Read the full artice at CNNMoney.com.

Although home sales rose modestly nationwide, home sales still declined in the Western region of the United States. The NAR and housing experts still try to paint a hopeful picture, but as lending practices tighten and foreclosures increase along with rising gas and food prices combined with a weak dollar, I think we haven't seen the worst of it yet. Hold on to your hats, we are in for a bumpy ride.

Real Estate Market Data

where and who people are getting their data. I just look at the MLS and interpret the data how I feel comfortable with. A realtor can provide you with just about any information you desire, of course it helps if you are a buyer or seller working with them, laugh.

Above are a couple of scans of an Area Market Survery hot from the press (generated from the MLS, you can even see the links at the bottom). I am mainly posting this entry for the prolific debaters from both sides of the argument on the housing forum of Craigslist. For better resolution click on the image then expand it. The first pic is all homes sold in seattle from May 18, 2006 to June 18, 2006. The second is from August 18, 2005 to September 18, 2005. The third is August 18, 2006, to September 18, 2006. Don't ask me why the aren't in order, Blogger put them that way.

Tacoma Housing Market sizzle now a simmer..

All the local papers published articles about the cooling Seattle and Tacoma Real Estate Market:

Tacoma News Tribune:
Housing sizzle now a simmer - 09/13/2006

Seattle Times:
Area's home prices idling as buyers take more time - 09/13/2006

Seattle PI
Home buying 'frenzy' may be leveling off - 09/13/2006

Overall I agree with the information published in these articles, they are based on hard numbers that I have confirmed myself through the MLS. We are in a buyer's market, good deals will still move, over priced or undesirable properties will sit - for a very long time.

Properties are Still Selling in Seattle

You can walk up to any water cooler or any group of people and immediately start a debate on the housing market. I've found, however, this is mostly an emotional debate based loosely on impressions or advice from this guy or that gal. Hardly are hard numbers involved. Now, numbers can be manipulated to show any number of things rarely show the whole picture. However, I like to look at the raw numbers and determine for myself what I think they mean. And I will post these raw numbers on this blog. If you have any market analysis requests in the Tacoma or Seattle area email me and I will see what I can do.

So without further adieu:

Seattle is one of those highly discussed area, partially because it appears the market is not slowing down much. I attribute this to a growing downtown commercial and residential core, a lack of easy expansion due to geography, and the commute.

The following numbers are based on Single Family Homes and Condos.

The number of buyers is constant, which is an indication of a strong market. The inventories, or number of active listings, are rising, doubling actually each month. The next couple of months should be interesting. The rule of thumb is if the inventory is less than 3 months the number of properties sold per month then it is a seller's market. If it is more than 6 months then it is a buyer's market.

Interestingly enough the average days on the market and the price has stayed the same. Homes and Condos are selling in about 30 days and the average price is 475k.

Stay tuned.